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Modelling infection spread using location tracking

Andrew Mason, Nicholas J. Dingle, William J. Knottenbelt, Derek Bell, William Buchanan, Christoph Thuemmler

Journal Article
International Journal of Healthcare Technology and Management
Volume 11
Issue 6
pp.442–461
2010
Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.
Abstract

The precision of location tracking technology has improved greatly over the last few decades. We aim to show that by tracking the locations of individuals in a closed environment, it is now possible to record the nature and frequency of interactions between them. Further, that it is possible to use such data to predict the way in which an infection will spread throughout such a population, given parameters such as transmission and recovery rates. We accordingly present a software package that is capable of recording and then replaying location data provided by a high-precision location tracking system. The software then employs a combination of SIR modelling and the epidemiological technique of contact tracing in order to predict the spread of an infection. We use this software to conduct a number of experiments using a sample data set, and compare the SIR graphs generated from these to similar graphs generated using the traditional SIR differential equations.

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Information from pubs.doc.ic.ac.uk/ijhtm2010.