In this paper we study the evolution of the spot price of computing power in a possible future world market for computing power. This global market is implemented as a peer-to-peer computer network and has been modelled via simulations previously. We find that the log-returns of the spot price of computing power follow a similar distribution to the ones of electricity prices or the DAX index. We then develop a stochastic calculus model that captures the essence of the evolution of the spot price of computing power using a Markov regime-switching mechanism between three states. We estimate the values of the parameters of the model via maximum likelihood and we finally do an exact numerical stochastic simulation of the three-regime model and compare it with the original market behaviour.
Information from pubs.doc.ic.ac.uk/stochastic-ukpew-2010.